Thursday, January 03, 2013

Is It Spring Training Yet???

With 40 days until Spring Training and the Giants eliminated from playoff contention this is going to be a long down period.

Cashman is saying he can still make moves to better the club. If so, then why did he let good affordable players sign elsewhere without even making offers? I think I read recently that the Yankees right now are at $189MM but still have arbitration to go so that is going to increase to over $200MM before the start of the season.

I think the Yankees have a decent rotation and bullpen that should keep them in most games without a problem. The offense is not going to hit as many HRs this year losing Swisher, Chavez, and Ibanez and A-Rod for most of the season. With Gardner and Ichiro you could see them going small ball easily. If they add a bat like Damon who can still hit a little and run it may also add to that element. If they want to try and add power there is only really a couple of aging left handed DHs, like Hafner or Thome. One name that may draw a little interest is Brandon Inge. He's coming off shoulder surgery (he separated his shoulder twice last season). Has some power, right handed bat, can play C, 3B, 1B, and OF. Aubrey Huff is another name that could fill multiple roles for the Yankees, though he bats left handed.

If the Yankees are looking for some SP insurance they could look at Bedard, Braden, Jurrjens, or Marcum. Marcum could probably be had for an affordable deal and could open up the Yankees to trading a guy like Nova. Don't think they would look to trade Hughes because he would certainly be given a qualifying offer and the Yankees could get a draft pick.

That's the good thing with Swisher signing elsewhere. with Cleveland. The Yankees will get a compensation pick. The bad thing is they no longer get the Cleveland pick. Cleveland just loses their pick and the Yankees get a pick between the 1st & 2nd rounds. That's also a good side of the Yankees being frugal this offseason. By avoiding the big name free agents, they haven't lost their pick and with so many qualifying free agents signing with new teams, the 1st round is actually decreasing, so the Yankees will end up with 2 (or 3 when Soriano signs somewhere) very good picks.

30 comments:

Crash said...

Looking at NY Giants polls on the NY Post web site....68% people do NOT want Perry Fewell back, 65% do NOT want Osi back (I agreed with this but was surprised thought I would be in the minority...think his long on going contract dispute has turned him into a negative attitude and has brought down the whole defense), and 72% do not want Corey Webster back...I was actually surprised to see him playing the last week of the season after his performance, or lack there of, in Baltimore. There were a couple guys around 50/50...but for the most part everyone else was 80% or higher for "bring them back".

Crash said...

This is what infuriates me with Cashman. Yahoo Sports is reporting that Romine will start in the minors and Cervelli and Stewart are battling for #1. Here's Cashman's quote: "I expect Romine to go to Triple-A...I don't expect him to be our everyday catcher out of the gate. If I were in prediction mode I would say Triple-A."

OMG! Why won't he give the farm system a chance? If this isn't the right time to break in a young catcher, when is it? He's fine defensively, his bat will be better than Cervelli or Stewart. What gives with the Yankees letting young guys play!?!?! It's not even spring training and he's being sent to AAA. At least let him battle for the position in an unbiased environment. It's things like this that should have Cashman fired.

old professor said...

First off the Giants don't base their personnel decisions on polls taken by the NY Post. Most of the individuals writing in are unemployed and have nothing better to do than believe they are coaches. I would not be surprised to see Spagnola back with the Giants. There have been players sniping through aninimoty at him in the press. He did a pretty good job with the Giants - had the personnel to do it. Osi needs to guy he whines to much about his contract and has become a distraction. The Giants have other options. In addition after 10 years, his best days are definately behind him.

As for the Yankees, don't be surprised to see them contact Napoli to come in and do some of the catching and then do some DHing. He has not signed with the red sox and the deal may now be off.

Damon wants to make a comeback, but would have to do so at a very cheap price.

I also find it interesting that there seems to be very little action on Soriano, Bourn and Loesche. All three are represented by Boris and probably have priced themselves out of the market. There is some thought that Soriano will end up with the Tigers, but there is word out of their camp they are going from within.

As for Romine, he will be in camp and given the opprotunity to compete - Let's see what happens.

Crash said...

The deal between Napoli and Boston fell through because he failed his medical. He has a hip problem...which is in part why he wasn't catching.

The opportunity for Romine in spring is just talk. He has no shot if Cashman has already pegged him for Triple A that's where he's ending up, regardless of performance.

I think all of the guys you mention above, the Boras clients, are all going to end up taking short term 1 year deals. Market has dried up for them. Loesche is a back end rotation guy, Bourn is an aging CF who relies on his legs (bad combination legs & aging), Soriano seems to have a negative rep. It's clear this guy can close, the Tigers seem like such a logical fit. Teams are just realizing you don't need to spend $15MM on a closer.

Crash said...

There's a pretty read about Stanton or Upton being traded on Bleacher Report. And as the general census around baseball is the Yankees will not be real contenders to land either of these guys because the talent is just not there in the farm and both Arizona and Miami can get much better packages from just about every other team out there.

I agree with the assessment that the Yankees farm system is not looked upon greatly right now. It is surprising how quickly things change...just 2 or 3 years ago the Yankees had the best farm system in the game with top prospects like Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Romine, Sanchez, and Jackson. Hughes and Joba were still full of potential.

This is where Cashman just doesn't get it. He refuses to bring these kids up and let them perform. He doesn't allow them to develop and as a result they get stuck in the minors, they never reach their full potential, and Cashman misses their peak value. 2 years ago Montero and Banuelos could have landed Stanton in pinstripes...now you couldn't trade the entire Scranton team for him and it's essentially the same players.

old professor said...

What you need to understand about the Yankee system is all of the hype regarding their prospects is generated by the team in an attempt to enhance value in trades. In most instances, the Yankee system does not provide a good flow of talent to the major leagues. Montero had a decent season last year- but the jury is still out as to whether he can really be a major league catcher. Jackson had a couple of good years and was a solid prospect. Betances and Banuelos may never be in the bigs. Hughes has been anything but consistent and Joba no one knows from one year to the next how he is going to perform or whether he will stay healthy.

Even players the Yankees have recently drafted have serious questions marks. Bichette, Heathcott, and Cito C (the shortstop from Rochester) have all regressed and many around baseball feel the Yankees wasted their picks on those individuals when better talent was available.

The whole system for the Yankees needs to be revamped. Their scouting of talent is questionable, their draft processes suck and even their trades don't seem to pan out.

This is the late 60s and 70s all over again.

old professor said...

Interesting article on ESPN website. The article indicates interest in the Yankees is waning. Attendance has slipped each year since the opening of the new stadium and last year averaged 85% capacity. The fall off in attendande reinforces the issue I raised regarding the lack of activity for the Yankees in the Free Agent Market - they are beginning to feel a financial pinch. While attendance is still over 3 million you cannot have the fall off they have experienced and not have it affect the bottom line. Could it actually be the Yankees are beginning to run out of money?

Crash said...

The Yankees were apparently "in" on Lance Berkman before the Rangers ave him a huge pay day (1 year, $10MM with 2014 vesting option based on plate appearances). That is far above what Cashman could probably offer for a part time DH bat.

The recent draft picks were based on "character" guys, not best available or positional need. Yankees need talent from the draft.

old professor said...

It now looks as if the Yankees are willing to go to two years for Scott Hairston.

Talking with Pete at Maxwell's, he agrees with my assessment that Yankee fans better prepare for two years of very mediocre play and no playoff appearances. He also agreed with my assessment of their financial situation.

Crash said...

Pete also had the assessment the Red Sox would win the Series last year and the Yankees were done. To quote Lee Corso; "Not so fast my friend."

The definition of "mediocre" is different for every team. If mediocre means 90+ wins but quite possibly missing the playoffs, then yes that is quite possible for the Yankees. I could legitimately see the Yankees winning 90-92 games this year but missing the playoffs by a game or 2. Similar to the 2008 Yankees...they finished with 89 wins, not a terrible season...4th most wins in the AL behind LA (100), Tampa(97), & Boston(95). But finished 6 back of the wild card Red Sox.

This and next year is when the "baseball" people in the organization need to get creative and build another dynasty like the mid-'90s. Part of that is definitely letting some of the farm kids play a major role. Young guys like Jeter, Pettitte, Bernie, Mo, and later Posada were all key to that success. They need to give the opportunity to guys like Mason Williams, Austin Romine, and a couple of others to step up. People say they're not ready yet...no one thought Jeter was ready either, it was done out of necessity/injury and he never looked back, in his first full season batting .314.

old professor said...

Apparently, Scott Boras approached the Yankees about a one year deal and the team rejected the overture. One of the pieces regarding the bullpen people are forgetting is the Yankees do have David Aardsma under contract. He did pitch a couple of times for them in the fall and it appeared his velocity was back. He will now be more than a year removed from surgery and could prove to be a valuable commodity should Mo not be able to come all of the way back.

As for Pete, he has even written the Red Sox off for the season. His view being Toronto has suddenly been transformed into the favorite in the division, followed by Baltimore. Furthermore it will be a dog race (dead dogs) between Tampa, Boston and NY for the basement of the East. My best projection at this point given the state of the offense and the backend of the rotation, the Yankees will win no more than 85 games.

They are not going to beat Toronto, even in the best circumstances they have had trouble with Baltimore, Texas will be strong, the Angels have one of the best rotations in the American League and Tampa's rotation will be excellent as well. That leaves teams like KC, Houston, and Seattle for the Yankees to beat up on.

Crash said...

First, the Yankees will not beat up on KC. Think of KC as the Rays about 3-4 years ago. While they did acquire James Shields, they are still a true ace big pitcher away from contending for a WC spot if not the division.

I think Baltimore is overrated. They will not get the same production from their rotation this coming season and they will not win as many 1 run games. They were 29-9 in 1 run games, and 16-2 in extra innings. Neither of those will happen again. Most winning teams are around .580-.600 in 1 run games (usually right around they're regular season record). If you put Baltimore at a .580 winning percentage in those one run games (more realistic probability) that's 7 wins...meaning they go from a 93 win team down to 86 wins and miss the playoffs, by a wide margin.

I'm not sold on Toronto yet...need to see it on the field. Remember Boston signed A-Gon and Crawford, and had the best rotation in baseball...didn't make the playoffs. LA signed Pujols and Wilson and were the favorites in the AL West, didn't make the playoffs. They are much improved but by how much???If you look at WAR for positional players (Wins Above Replacement) Reyes is 2.8, John Buck .4, Emilo Bonifacio .5...meaning they're getting 3.7 more wins if they just used guys they called up from the minors. But they also trade Yunel Escobar, his WAR in Toronto was 2.7 that means the net WAR is 1 more win.

Pitching both Buehrle and Johnson are at 1.8 and 1.7 WAA (Wins Above Average). Now if Johnson can regain his 2009-2010 form he is about 5 or 6 WAA. So take those new wins (1 win on offense and 3.5 on pitching) we'll round up to 5 more wins on the season...that still puts the Jays under .500 with 78 wins. RA Dickey has a 4 WAA...that puts the Jays at 82 wins. If they play above they're heads they may end up like the Orioles last season. I'm not counting Melky in here because his WAR last season is an anomaly because of PEDs.

Statistically I do not see the wins adding up to take the division for the Jays. I place them 3rd maybe 4th, in the AL East. Which is where they were last season too.

old professor said...

I think you are underestimating the Jays. They have completely revamped the team. They have added speed, power, and defense. The two new arms in the rotation will greatly improve what was there and in addition they will be getting some of the pitchers back they lost last year.

As for the Angels, you seem to forget they finally came together as a team in mid-August and got themselves back in the race. They have added Grienke to the rotation (and I am not sure how he will perform)and they have added more offense. So they will contend.

KC always finds a way to lose. The Orioles may have been leading a charmed life last year, time will tell. Even if they were, the Yankees are no where near the team that they were last year that had a great deal of difficulty with teams in the division.

Crash said...

Adam Laroche has signed a 2 year deal with the Nationals. This means Michael Morse will be traded immediately. I think the Yankees are a perfect fit for Morse. Nationals are said to be looking for MLB lefty relief pitcher (Yankees have 2: Logan & Rapada) and a prospect or 2. Morse can DH, play OF or 1B. He's power hitter to all fields and a good average (.300) from the right side of the plate. He's under contract for the next 2 seasons at a reasonable rate ($3.25M & $6.75M, respectively). Cashman needs to make this deal. He is a difference making bat, especially in a Yankee lineup that is in need of power. He is .300, 30, 100.

Crash said...

Correction Morse is only under contract for this season at $6.75. The one year rental should reduce the asking price a little in the way of prospects.

Crash said...

Hughes or Nova for Morse??? I think that would get the deal done. Let Phelps take the #5 spot???

old professor said...

I would not weaken my rotation to get a part-time outfielder. It appears the Yankees will offer a two year deal to Hairston at a much lower rate than the individual you are taking about.

One individual that I did not realize was a free agent and apparently has only been talked to about signinig minor league deals is Jeff Karstens. He was effective with the Yankees and he was serviceable with the Pirates. If the Yankees trade Nova then for an outfielder (which I do not see happening) then Karstens could be a cheap alternative as a number 5 starter.

Crash said...

Holy crap...did Mid slip you some of the Karstens Kool-Aid??? No way is Karstens a serviceable #5, or serviceable bullpen guy. Again I would rather go with Phelps, Warren, or anyone else in the system before signing Karstens. Even take a chance on a guy like Bedard or Millwood or any other veteran out there over that guy.

At this point I would not offer anyone a 2 year deal. They shouldn't have given it to Ichiro, they'll regret that shortly.

Crash said...

Yankees, Rays, and M's are most active on Morse trade front right now. I think the Rays hurt their chances when they traded Shields and Davis to KC. M's have a lot of pitching prospects might be a better fit there...from a Nats perspective.

old professor said...

First of all go back and read the post I am not a fan of Karstens my comment was I did not realize he was a free agent. And if the Yankees are intent on going cheap and trade Nova he could be an option.

Seattle has more chips to trade if they go after Morse.

Crash said...

Regarding karstens...go back and read my post...better options in-house.

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