Sunday, May 20, 2007

My Latest Theory...

The snake bitten 2007 season continues to roll 2 games into the inter league series with the Mets. Rasner throws 4 pitches, takes a line drive, breaks a finger - and to add insult to injury takes the loss on the day as well - 4 pitches and a loss - nice.... Even though the Yanks are now at a season low 5 games under, and threatening to go lower with yet another rookie stepping onto the mound tonight - all was not lost, with the most recent loss.

Yankee batters finally started working the count again, and interestingly, though not so surprisingly put a respectable amount of runs on the board. Cano got two hits including a homer - perhaps a turning the corner game? Phelps had 3 hits. A-Rod started hitting and more importatnly just getting on base in general. And Posada - he's playing possessed right now adding to his league leading average going 4 for 5 at .386 on the season. Signs of improvement have been showing up since Giambi's last at bat in game 1. Question is, will gradual improvement lead to victories?

So here's my latest theory: Tonights game against the Mets does not mean a whole lot win or lose. The Yanks have essentially a 10 game home stand after the stint in Queens. 7 in the Bronx vs. the Sox and the Angels, followed by 3 in Toronto which is essentially a home game given how well Yank's fans travel north of the border. They have to win 8 out of the next 10 with at least 2 of those wins coming against the Red Sox. If the Bombers can gain ground on the Sox over the next three days, then that can be viewed as the building block for the turnaround to begin. However, if the Yanks get bitch slapped by the Sox instead, then forget it - the season is lost and they ain't coming back.

Regardless if they gain ground, or continue to lose, outside of Torre resigning, management will let him finish the season due to the Clemens signing and his insistence that he will not play for anyone else. At the conclusion of the 2007 - the Yanks hire Joe Girardi.

So just to review - the Yanks season, and their ability to make playoffs, will hinge on the next 10 games following the completion of the series with the Mets. Clemens will pitch. Torre will finish outside of resigning, and Girardi takes over as skip in 2008 and cleans house and rebuilds the machine.

23 comments:

The Scooter said...

I'm with you on the homestand, Mid. I think Girardi is the leading canditate right now...unless of course the Yankees somehow win it all....then Torre retires and Mattingly gets it.

Why am I hearing Booby V rumblings? Not that I would be totally against that....I'm going to have to give it some thought.

Mid said...

Isn't Bobby V managing in Japan? or am I thinking of someone else?

the Scooter said...

Yep he's in Japan right now...but reportedly has an out in his contract if he gets a MLB managing job.

Mid Relief said...

Clippard looked pretty impressive last night. Obviously going with the law of small samples with this one, but, the young guns that we've heard about in the minor system look as good as promised. As early as next year Yanks could boast youngest starting rotation ex-Mussina. Potential rotation: Wang, Mussina, Hughes, DeSalvo, and Clippard.

Although Yanks won (Abreu found his onions and got on base 4 times last night - is it sign the slump is over?!), still have some stress as Mo gave up another Homer. His pitches are up.

We have our top three set up in terms of pitching match ups heading into this series with Wang, Mussina, and Pettitte all on ordinary rest schedules and ready to go. I hope we sweep these bastards.

The Scooter said...

Mo, just needs some more consistent work. As the eternal optimist, I will say that if the Yankees scratch their way into the post season, he should be just rounding into form :)

Clippard looked great...looked like he belonged. Other than Hughes, he is the rookie pitcher that I am most impressed with. That's a tough spot, in Shea against the Met lineup, trying to avoid a sweep. He came up roses.

Abreau and Cano start to go on a roll....Jeter and Posada will continue to hit...Damon takes a Prozac.....and A-Rod gives us just a little something.....Get out the brooms fellas...We're sweeping the Sox.

The Scooter said...

Thought you might like to see this from the Elias Sports Bureau:

Derek Jeter, who had a 20-game hitting streak earlier this season, extended his current streak to 15 games with a third-inning double. Jeter has fashioned eight single-season hitting streaks of at least 15 games during his career, third-most among active players, behind Nomar and Ichiro (each with nine).

old professor said...

The Yankee rotation is essentially set for the Boston Series. However, that still means two rookie starters going against the Angels. Both DeSalvo and Clippard have looked good. Clippard's delivery is a little bit funky which could tend to throw timing of the hitters off.

The key will be consistency.

I cannot see Bobby V coming to the Bronx. While he led the mets to the series, he didn't win and I believe the following year was shown the door. He is an off the scale egomaniac who believes no one knows as much about baseball as he does.

Stienbrenner has stated he will wait until the end of this week to make a decision about Torre. If the yanks lose two of three or get swept, Joe is gone regardless of Clemens.

No matter who is in the dugout, Clemens is not going to walk away from $4.5 million per month.

Regarding next year's rotation, don't forget to throw Sanchez in the mix. You also left Pettitte out of the rotation. You have also been one of the biggest fans for Rasner and Karstens and seem to put them out of the picture.

Rumors are also beginning to circulate that the Yankees are looking to void Giambi's contract because of what appeared to be an admission of steroid use. I don't believe they will void it nor do I believe under the collective bargaining agreement they can void it.

The Scooter said...

Prof, where did you see the report of Steinbrenner waiting until the end of this week regarding Torre?

Anonymous said...

In his head... that's where.

old professor said...

The report regarding Steinbrenner was part of a conversation on the Sunday pre-game. There had been the usual anonymous employee spoke on condition of remaining anonymous. The view was a sweep by Boston would be a door opener for Torre's exit.

Steinbrenner seems to send mix messages - first he is on the phone talking with Torre supporting him the next item is anonymous sources in management.

One item that cannot bode well for Torre is the apparent re-emergance of Randy Lavine in the decision making process. Lavine is not a big Joe Torre fan.

Surprised we haven't heard from 57 on the progress of the Mets over the weekend. Usually Met's fans don't know how to handle success because it comes around so sparingly.

Anonymous said...

don't worry about the Mets fan - he's been busy emailing and calling about how wonderful David Wright is (on the field this time).

the only way Torre is gone is if he resigns.

I'm itching to see a complete beat down of the Sox heading into tonight's game. I'd like to see Damon give a few signs of life as the rest of those in the slump have.

It'll be interesting to see what the meeting between Giambi and MLB will bring...

Mid

Anonymous said...

Wang did not look sharp, but was able to find his way out of a few jams - bull pen came up and clamped down a rally in the 7th.

The old Cano - has he returned?

Jeter batting almost .650 with runners in scoring position...

A-Rod heating up - and Clemens may make debut on Monday.

Mid

old professor said...

Wang did what the ace of the staff is supposed to do. His main pitch was not working so he adjusted and pitched tough. He showed a lot of guts. He also threw the most pitches of any Yankee starter this year - 114.

Proctor and Bruney now seem to be the new go to guys and will be used until their arms fall off. Farnholz did a good job as well coming out of the pen.

Pleasantly surprised that everyone who was slumping seemed to hit and hit with power.

old professor said...

One correction - Farnsworth not Farnsholz. Sorry long night last night with the game and board meeting.

The Scooter said...

Old Prof, I think you had a long night with a bottle of bourbon.

old professor said...

Scooter, the board meeting had me looking for some Bourbon. Latest rumor mill as reported on Mike and Mike on ESPN radio - The Angels have inquired about obtaining Jason Giambi. Apparently, any actual trade will have to await the outcome of the commissioner's investigation into Giambi's remarks to the media over this past weekend, where he apologized for using "that stuff" - would this be steroids or too many cream puffs??

Giambi for Ervin Santana would sound good right about now. Let's see if this trade rumor actually materializes.

The Scooter said...

Think we can get Francisco Rodriguez for Giambi if we throw in Melky or one of the young pitchers?

Anonymous said...

I would be shocked if the Angels were willing to assume his pay - they mention who the bombers might get in return?

The Scooter said...

all I heard was Chone Figgins and a "young arm" from the Angel farm system...but if the Yankees had to eat some of the Giambi contract they would certainly want more than that.

Mid Relief said...

typical Torre - leave the pitcher in too long because he's an aging veteran and didn't want to hurt his feelings...

this is such bull shit. it was clear by the 2nd that moose did not have his stuff, throwing meet in the mid 80s doesn't get it done against the bo sox. now the game is out of reach.

should have never resigned him. as I posted in October - you don't hold a lead in the playoffs at home then you don't deserve the contract.

and just to pile on - he has pitched like crap all season long.

old professor said...

While I am not a supporter of Joe Torre's, we can't have it both ways. There have been a number of statements on this site about his overuse of the bullpen now he gets critized for going too long with a starter. Had the umpires gotten the Crisp call at second base right, the game may have been different.

If the umpires continue to get homerun calls wrong (two in Colorado) and putouts a second wrong (at least two versus the Yankees), the call for instant replay will get louder.

Figgins for Giambi would be a great move. It would give the Yankees a player that can start at several different positions and give them a solid lead-off hitter who can steal a lot of bases. The guy gives 100% everytime out. I would throw Damon in the trade not Melky. Damon is not hitting, has lost a step and has a weak arm. Melky can run, is hitting about the same as Damon and has a cannon for an arm and is considerably younger than Damon and will only get better (I hope).

With the Angels coming to town for the weekend, maybe the trade gets done. Giambi has become a very high priced DH.

By the way, for those of you out there waiting for the Yankees to sign Andruw Jones for next year, here is something to think about - A sports analyst (works for ESPN the name escapes me) just wrote a book on the most over-rated and under-rated players in baseball. Statistically, Jones is one of the most over-rated. Apparently, they measure his effectiveness on plays made in his defensive zone (balls that should be caught by a centerfielder). Last year, he made one hundred less putouts than he did the year before on balls hit into his zone. In other words, balls he used to get to, he can no longer get to. Wasn't that the reason we didn't resign Bernie Williams.

Anonymous said...

we don't want Jones - we want Ichiro instead.

Giambi failed a drug test for speed.

The Scooter said...

How about them both...Jones and Ichiro. We wont have to go to free agency for a high priced pitcher...

Giambi is certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer, is he?

And thank you Prof for somebody finally pointing out that Torre is dammed if he does and damned if he doesn't.

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