Sunday, February 12, 2012

Getting Closer

Only a few weeks away from Pitchers and Catchers - very much looking forward to Yankess 2012.

So, when rumors are as strong as they are it is because they tend to be true and someone wants you to know they're true - that would be the front office of the Yanks trading A.J. Burnett. If he goes to Pittsburgh, I wouldn't mind them sending back Tabata, Karstens or McCuthens.

Sometimes, an acquired player just don't mix - Weaver, Pavano, and now A.J. - he'll probably lead the Pirates to the Wild Card now and be a hero.

Positive reports from Joba's rehab. He showed a lot of promise in 2011, hopefully he doesn't get overused in his first season back.

And on a "PAGE 6" type note - the only thing missing from Bob Lorenz DUI bust was a passed out Nancy or Kim on his lap.


old professor said...

There are two things holding up the trade of AJ to the Pirates:(1) money. The pirated want the Yankees to eat mor than fifty percent of the contract and that isn't going to happen and (2) the yankees want the pirates top outfield prospect. The names of Tabata and Karstens have not been mentioned. Besides Karstens is a starting pitcher, why trade one smarter for another, which will still leave you with seven starters.

Crash said...

Some final news on the New York Football Giants...both TEs Ballard and Beckum have torn ACLs from the Super Bowl, leaving only Pascoe. Both players will start the season on the PUP list. GM will be looking at TEs in the offseason.

Crash said...

On the trade front, the Yankees are not in love with the prospects being offered by Pittsburgh. The money difference is not an issue for Pittsburgh. They want to hold onto their top kids more than eating a couple extra million.

Mid your timeline is off...pitchers and catchers report in a few days not weeks. Some camps already have early arrivals.

old professor said...

I was under the impression the Yankees were looking at a prospect in exchange for Burnett. Apparenlty, Jones is 30 years old is a first baseman/outfielder who hit around 250-260 last year. The pirates are expecting him to play right field (I thought Tabata was the right fielder).

Why would the Yankees look to bring in a guy that is thirty years old other than he would not be a free agent for another three years.

There has to be better options for them to choose from. The again the team they looking to trade with is the pirates and they aren' known as a major minor league prospect mining operation.

Crash said...

Garrett Jones was the initial request, Pittsburgh wouldn't include him. They have since moved to only 1 or 2 prospects.

It's weird seeing a straight salary dump from the Yankees but that's exactly what's happening here. The Yankees will be lucky to get a player that contributes at the MLB level in this deal.

Crash said...

Jeter is already in camp.

Crash said...

Baseball Prospectus has released their Top 101 Prospects. And not shockingly the Yankees, who have been said to have a very good farm system the last couple of years, is not high on the list. Baseball Prospectus is historically anti-Yankee/pro-Red Sox.

Anyways...the Yankees prospects come in at:
#29 Manny Banuelos
#40 Gary Sanchez
#63 Dellin Batances
#99 Mason Williams

Matt Moore (Tampa SP), Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout were the top 3, Montero came in at #7. In my opinion each of the Yankees guys could have been ranked much higher.

old professor said...

The issue of who will be sent to the Yankees will hold up the trade for a long time. It is part of the process that most major league teams will try to get something from the Yankees for virtually nothing.

As for salary dump, the Yankees are intent on getting the salary down to $189m by the 2014 season. They are tired of paying the luxury tax to teams such as the royals, pirates and marlins who then go out and either (a) pocket the money or (b) sign significant free agents. Take a look at how much the Yankees paid in luxury tax for last year and how much the Marlins received from the league. That will go a long way in explaining how they signed the free agents they signed.

Look for the Yankees eventually to take whatever the Pirates offer just so they can get out of AJ contract.

Crash said...

Phil Hughes through BP in Tampa this morning. He apparently looks real good and has come into camp in great shape.

old professor said...

Hughes has rededicated himself to returning to the pitcher he was in 2010. Think about the possiblilities: Hughes returns to form wins 18; Nova pitches like he did last year and wins 16, CC pitches like CC and wins 19. Those three could account for 54 wins by pitching like they can. Through in the kid from Seattle and Kuroda, and you are up to around 85 wins. Takes a lot of heat off of the bullpen. (Let's not forget 10-12 wins for Garcia).

I believe the Yankees will be hard to beat in the East - barring injuries. A-Rod had the experimental treatment on his knee and shoulder and should be okay. Martin should be ready to go at catching. There are not a lot of spots open on this roster. The big issue is age. The roster for the most part is one year older and you cannot hold the clock back forever.

Crash said...

Cuban OF Yoenis Cespedes has agreed to terms with the Oakland A's!?!?

I don't get this at all. The A's trade off all of their young great pitchers and were claiming salary relief...yet they sign a guy like CoCo Crisp and then sign Cespedes. Looks like a 4 year $36MM deal.

old professor said...

i am very surprised by the signing of Cespedes. The A's were never mentioned in any of the talks. Cespedes met with the Marlins over the weekend and then left the country. Not sure when the A's had time to talk with him.

Cespedes signing with the A's may mean someone on the A's is about to be traded to free up some salary.

Indications are all of the pieces are in place for AJ to go to the Pirates. We will see.

Crash said...

According to Buster Olney: Vlad Guerrero has made it known to the Yankees he wants their DH spot.

Vlad still hit .290 last year. Power numbers are way down and being right handed in Yankee Stadium will further hurt that. His recent splits show that he can still hit right handed pitching (.309 avg, 11 HR) but struggled against lefties (.253, 2 HR)

I think there are better options out there.

old professor said...

Vlad can't run and it does seeem odd that he has a problem with lefties. He cannot give them any additional time at any other position so I would believe he is not on their radar.

MId said...

I would rather have Vlad in the DH role in the playoffs than Tex, A-Rod, or Swisher.

Sign him up.

old professor said...

On first blush, I thought the trade with Seattle was a pretty even trade, but the more I consider it, I am not sure the Yankees got the best of the deal. Noesi pitched will for the Yankees last year and filled into whatever role they needed him to. He gave them consistent performances through the entire year. In addition, Montero proved he could hit and everyone believes he will hit. The Yankees got two pitchers from Seattle. Penieda wore down after the all-star game and Campos is a prospect who played at single A. Both Montero and Noesi proved they can play at the major league level.

I believe Noesi would give the Yankees as much as the new addition and who is to say if Campos will ever amount to anything? Noesi also pitched extremely well in the Dominican League.

I am also confused with the A's signing of Cespedes. Here is a 26 year old (by Cuban standards) who has never played a day in the major leagues and is now the highest paid player on the A's. Interesting analysis done on the MLB Network - comment was made that all of the video of the kid working out does not necessarily translate into performance on the field - jumping over boxes, running in the sand, etc does not guarantee success on the field. In addition, it was pointed out that most of the hi-light video is of groundballs; only one long homerun. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out in Oakland.

Crash said...

The Cespedes signing is completely baffling. The A's unload every pitcher they had...accept Dallas Braden, who had shoulder surgery in May and then signed a one year deal in the offseason and got a raise. The A's were crying we can't afford these guys because we play in Oakland. Then they pay a lot of money to Crisp and Cespedes. I think Billy Beane gets too much credit These moves seem to be counter intuitive to what they were trying to do just a couple of weeks ago.

Cespedes will be traded by July 2013.

Old Prof I disagree a little bit on the trade. While I think Noesi would have been productive in NY, he does not compare to Pineda. Noesi probably would have put up numbers comparable to Nova last year but with more K's. Pineda could be an 18-20 game winner this year and lead the league in K's (not joking). Campos and Noesi are essentially the same pitcher if you go by the numbers...the difference is Campos is younger and has a higher ceiling, while with Noesi, he is what he's going to be.

Crash said...

So far...Pineda, Nova, Hughes, Wade, Joba, Robertson, Banuelos, and Betances in camp. No word on AJ yet. Jeter and Cano are both in. Cano and Pineda have quickly become good friends.

Ramiro Pena, Justin Maxwell, Austin Romine, and David Adams also in camp.

Interesting to learn that the Angels were interested in AJ, but he wants to stay on the East Coast and LA is on his no trade list.

old professor said...

Crash, the MLB analysts suggest Beane is hoping for Cespedes to put up big numbers this year and through half a season next year and then trade him for more high level prospects.

They received a boatload of talent in the three trades they made during the winter - something like thirteen high end prospects. They are hoping to be competitve in two years and to be in a new stadium in San Jose by then - fat chance!

Apparently the annonymous insider is saying the trade of AJ is done. The Yankees will pay around $20 million of his salary and receive two mid level prospects - they really must want to get rid of the guy because this is a give away. Additionally because of the money involved, the Commissioner must approve the trade. If and when the trade is finalized, the Yankees appear ready to sign Chavez and a left-handed DH.

As for the failure to trade to the Angels - AJ's wife does not want to move far from their Maryland home so the west coast was definately a no no.

I have to disagree with your assessment of the Pineda trade. First Noesi has proven he can start and pitch from the pen. He throws stikes and has three above average pitches. Pineda has two pitches and is williing to develop a change. Pineda also faded significantly down the stretch after the all star game. So he has not proven he can last a full season. Campos is a raw talent who has been tagged with the identification of: he needs to harness his stuff - synonomous with he lacks control.

With the depth of their system Campos may be given the time to develop. For the team to let Noesi go is a clear indication that (a) they wanted to give him a chance to start and it wasn't going to be in NY or the minors and (b) they are high on the rule 5 pick from the Nationals as their long man out of the pen.

Only time will tell.

Crash said...

Just curious where you get Noesi proved he can start??? Last year Noesi was 2-2 with an ERA around 4.50, he made only 2 starts. And in those 2 starts his ERA was nearly 10. His K/BB rate is 2:1, not bad but you would want closer to 3:1, that's where elite pichers live...boy if the Yankees had one of those guys...oh wait they do Michael Pineda.

Pineda is younger, more proven, has better stuff, and higher upside. Funny how Pineda is unproven while making 28 starts in the bigs with a WHIP of 1.10, and more than a K per inning while walking around 2 per 9, but Noesi who has made 2 starts has proven he can start.

There was talk of an AJ for Travis Hafner trade, that would have been interesting if Hafner was healthy. He would have lit up the porch in left field. I think the Yankees should hold on to AJ at this point and look to trade him at the deadline. AJ over his 3 years in Pinstripes has always started real good. He was 6-2 with an ERA under 4 going into June the past 2 years. With numbers like that he increases his trade value, the Yankees would get more value for their $$ as they get productivity from him, and they have to eat less of the contract.

Crash said...

Kevin Long is now in or pre-camp workouts. Curtis Granderson has arrived.

old professor said...

Regarding Noesi, the Yankees asked him to go to the Dominican Winter League to "stretch it out". Take a look at his stats from there.

As for AJ having a good start so did Pineda. Both faded after the all star game. Pineda admits his arm was tired after the mid way point. Now there is what you want a starting pitcher who runs out of gas at the mid way point of the season.

I hope I am wrong but it will be interesting to look at the statistical data when the season is over and compare the two. In addition Noesi was traded for Campos not Pineda.

Crash said...

AJ Burnette actually blocked the LA Angels deal. The agreement was in place between the teams and the Yankees would have taken back Bobby Abreu.

Crash said...

"Soft" deadline for AJ deal is Saturday. That's the mandatory report date for pitchers and catchers.

Crash said...

CC is flying into Tampa Saturday. As will AJ if he's not traded. That must be awkward for a player to be so publicly discussed and then show up where you know the team doesn't really want you. He obviously knows the Yankees are actively trying to trade him as he nixed the potential LA deal.

I wonder what 10 teams are on AJ's no trade list. If Angels are there for geographic reasons, I would assume that the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Mariners, D-backs, and Rockies are all on it too. Maybe the Astros and Rangers as well???

Crash said...

Boone Logan is now in camp. Cervelli is in camp as well. He's taking infield at 3B???

New "mystery team" has entered into the AJ talks. This team made a proposal to the Yankees yesterday according to Buster Olney. While Jim Bowden is saying deal with Pirates should be done in next 24 hours, just weighing one last offer from another team. Bowden (former GM) only makes public things he feels real confident about. His "insiders" are usually the GMs are player agents. So I believe him when he says the deal will be done in the next 24 hours.

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