Monday, October 29, 2012

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants

The Giants dismiss the Tigers in a 4 game sweep. I think it was almost fitting the Triple Crown Winner and most likely MVP, watched a fastball down the middle of thee plate for a called third strike to end it. It was very A-Rod-esque.

Now the Yankees can begin the off season moves. The Yankees have about $66 million coming off the books, that number probably drops by about $10mm to $56 after the arb cases are settled.

It will be interesting to see if the Yankees make a play for the big free agents. I think Zach Greinke and obviously Josh Hamilton are the big names there. Each will be well over $100MM. If ownership is interested in getting under $184 for 2014 now is the time to start that.

Here are the key off season dates:

Free agency starts now.

In 6 days, players may sign with any team.
In 12 days, last day for players to accept arb

11/12: ROY
11/13: Manager of the Year
11/14: Cy Young
11/15: MVP

12/3-12/6 Winter Meetings

Should be an interesting offseason


old professor said...

Odd how the Tigers were so hot and so good against the Yankees and then become almost Yankeesque in the world series.

Don't expect the Yankees to make a play for Grienke. They do not believe he has the make up to play in NY. The name being thrown around is Loese (St. Louis free agent). Hamilton will not get the contract offer he is looking for and exactly where would you expect him to play. Yankees will have Gardner back, Granderson back and are looking into making an offer to Ichiro. They have announced they will cut ties with Andrew Jones (about time there) and Ibanez is contemplating retirement.

The bigger question may become the bullpen. Rivera has indicated he may retire, Soriano is going to opt out and Lowe is gone (not sure this is a loss). In addition Kuroda signed a one year ten million dollar deal at the start of the season. I can see him asking for multi-year in excess of ten - is he worth it maybe.

Crash said...

Kuroda is definitely worth a multi year deal at around $12. You have to figure Hughes is going to be around that mark for arbitration too. Yankees will not go after Lohse, that is not smart money.

old professor said...

When you look at the potential players available on the free agent market, there is very little quality. In the outfield (other than Swisher, Ichiro, and Hamilton) there is Michael Bourn (who the Yankees apparently are interested in) Nate McLouth who resurrected his career in Baltimore. Infielders only one Marco Scutaro. Did not realize that the Yankees have Nix under contract.

Pitching is not deep: Annibal Sanchez (who the Yankees tried to trade for once before), Joe Blanton (innings eater), Ryan Demster who the Yankees inquired about with the Cubs before he was shipped to Texas and Colby Lewis.

Word is the Yankees will look to offer no long term deals and little cash. As for Hughes, he made six million this year, I don't see him going to ten or twelve.

Crash said...

Actually Hughes only made $3.2 this past season. I think I was getting mixed up with an article that projected what he would get next season on the FA market. He might earn about $5-6 this season. Gardner made $2.8, Joba $1.7...those 2 because of injuries probably won't see a big raise if they go to arb.

12 players have filed for FA so far: Chavez, Lowe, Ibanez, Jones, Kuroda, Martin, Ichiro, Swisher, Garcia, Rivera, Pettitte,and Feliciano.

Yankees have exercised option on Granderson, Cano, and Aardsma.

And Martin, Cano, and Teixeira are Gold Glove finalists.

old professor said...

REgarding Feliciano, the team holds an option on him - not sure they will exercise the option though. They took options on Granderson, Cano and Aardsma.

The Yankess will offer Martin a multi-year deal (you may remember they offered on to him at the beginning of the season and he turned it down - stats were awful, but Yankees want him back.

I believe Kuroda and Ichiro will return. Do not expect yankees to go after Hamilton or Grienke (who by the way flamed out with the Angels).

To me Michael Borne is still the number one target. I also believe the Yankees know they have to add pitching depth because of the younger arms they were depending on not being ready (Banuelos, Bettances and Pineda, and Campos).

old professor said...

How can Robinson Cano win a gold glove at second base. Either someone did not report all of the errors or second basemen around the league are awful.

Crash said...

Jon Heyman (Boras "insider") is reporting Rafael Soriano (Boras client) will opt out today.

Tex and Cano win Gold Gloves. Can't argue with that. Both are well deserved. Tex may be the best defensive 1B in the game right now.

Kuroda's agent says, he is open to a 1 year deal. Yankee brass has to like the sound of that. I was reading that Martin will not be back and the Yankees may look to FA catcher AJ Pierzynski. Don't know if that type of personality would fit the Yankee club house but you have to like the offensive #'s and his game behind the plate.

old professor said...

The Yankees will give a qualifying offer to Soriano which would guarantee and $800,000 raise over the current salary. If he takes it, he is $800,000 richer than had he stayed. If he leaves, Yankees get a draft pick.

Kuroda will return. Too bad if Martin doesn't. AJ will be the reincarnation of Swisher in th locker room.

Crash said...

Soriano isn't worried about $800K, if he can get a multi-year deal that's $12-14MM more.

Crash said...

Boras looking for 4 year deal for Soriano...he's not worried about the $800k...

I have no idea why the Yankees would looking at Torii Hunter. There are about a dozen OF that I would select over this guy. His prime left him before he left the Twins let alone the last 5 years in LA. He's 36 years old. He's still a plus defender but that's it. His strikeouts have increased every year over the last 4 seasons. That is a very bad trend for a team that was already strikeout prone...especially in big spots.

Crash said...

A-Rod to Phillies rumor floating around out there.

old professor said...

The Yankees don't need Soriano. The team picked up the option on Aardsma who was a closer a couple of years ago. His velocity was back near the end of the season and he appears to have recovered from surgery. I seriously believe the Yankees will give Joba the challenge of becoming the closer (this all predicated on Mo not coming back). Good luck to Soriano getting four years at the amount he is looking for. There were not a lot of teams looking to add him when the Yankees came calling. With the new rules on free agency, I don't see many teams knocking on his door (Red Sox maybe).

The Yankees going after Tori Hunter makes no sense for a team that wants to get younger and more athletic.

I believe the Yankees will get active within the next three to four weeks and have everything they want to do wrapped up before Christmas.

A don't see A-Rod going to Phillies. The Phillies have nothing to offer the Yankees other than expensive pitchers passed their prime.

Crash said...

Angels are actively trying to unload Dan Haren. Wonder if the Yankees have been contacted. One source has the Angels including Vernon Wells in the deal.

If that's the case how about Haren (who's owed $15.5mm) and Wells (owed the $44mm over the next 2 season) for A-Rod and something else???If it's a prospect you may be able to reduce the amount of A-Rods contract you're eating, if anything at all.

Crash said...

Just saw that former #1 pick Brien Taylor is facing up to 40 years in prison for distributing 28 grams of crack. Idiot.

Crash said...

Yankees are not in on the Haren trade talks. They will make qualifying offers to Soriano, Swisher, and Kuroda. I guessing Kuroda takes it. It's a $3.3MM raise.

old professor said...

Kuroda prefers a two year deal though he has indicated he would accept a one year deal. The qualifying offers are the precurssor to gettinig compensation of another teams first round pick should they sign the free agent. Yankees hope Swisher says no and signs with someone else. They have pretty much indicated they don't want him back. Even though Tory Hunter is going to be older - he is a better fielder and a proven performer in the post season in addition he is right handed. If they sign Hunter (I was actually hoping for Bourn) and Ichiro, that replaces Swisher and Jones.

Crash said...

That Giants game was terrible.

The Phillies have the early inside track on Bourn and BJ Upton. I wouldn't touch BJ Upton with a 10 foot pole, Justin Upton I would trade for in a second.

I would be shocked if the Kuroda doesn't take the 1 year $13.3 offer. Soriano won't. Swisher may. His value was diminished by the lack of performance late/post-season. If he can have a great season next year it may actually help him by taking this one year deal now. I think the Yankees would gladly take him back on a 1 year deal at that price or they would gladly take the compensation.

old professor said...

Swisher has indicated he wants a multi-year deal and probably will not accept the offer. Kuroda most likely would accept and then work on something more concrete if he wanted more than one year.

I was surprised there was no qualifying offer for Martin - though as most agree 13.8 million is more than he is worth.

Crash said...

Ortiz is back with the Red Sox.

Crash said...

Dan Haren is now a free agent. You have to wonder if the Yankees would be interested in signing him. He's essentially a 14 win type of guy with an ERA around total probably goes up in NY. This past season wasn't a good one which may lower his asking price but he's still a good to have especially if he's your #3 or 4 guy. In my opinion he's better than a Hughes or Nova.

old professor said...

Dan Haren could make a nice number four in the rotation IF HE STAYS HEALTHY. He has reached that magic age in his career where injuries tend to creep in and the velocity begins to fall off.

Why would the Yankees claim a 33 year old catcher off of waivers when the guy hit .091 in the majors last year and .221 at Triple A. The team already has a surplus of catchers. I would sense the Yankees are going to really push for Martin to sign, stay with Stewart as the backup, let Cervelli walk and have Romine spend the entire year at Triple A.

Soria wants to play for NY and is willing to be a set up guy for Mo. Indicated he would love to learn from Mo. Would have made $8 million of KC had picked up the option. Only negative he probably won't be ready until end of May first part of June.

Crash said...

Kind of an interesting article in the Post about Joakim Soria. He was the Royals closer who had TJS, missed all of last season. Says he wants to close unless the Yankees come calling. He would take less $$ and wants to setup for Mo. Yankees tried trading for him a couple of times. Adding him would make the Yankees bullpen the best in the game. If it goes Mo, Soria, Aardsma, Robertson, Joba, Logan, Rapada (or Eppley). That's pretty impressive.

Anonymous said...

You are correct. Soria would be a good addition there is also some conversation regarding a pitcher they have in the Arizona Fall League who has an outstanding stirkeout per 9 innings ration - 14 per nine innings pitched.

Soria has also indicated he does not want to wait a long time for considering an offer. I think they could offer him 8 million with additional incentives. There still has to be a big question as to how effective Mo is going to be at his age and coming off of the injury.

old professor said...

Yankees appear to be going on the cheap yet again. They claim two pitchers off of waivers - one from Toronto and the other from San Diego. The pitcher from Toronto is young but had Tommy John Surgery in June - so he won't be available until next September. Not sure what the mind set seems to be with the team right now as they appear to be stockpiling other teams junk.

Crash said...

I don't get the waiver moves either. GM meetings start today. Cashman will meet with all the agents out there to help gauge the FA market. For Cashman this is where the ground work is usually laid for a trade later. We will see.

Crash said...

Indians have been taking calls on a bunch of players including Choo and Masterson. I think both of those players fit the Yankees nicely...wonder if a package could be put together to grab both of those guys. This is Choo's final season before FA and Masterson I think begins the arb process now.

I would also be calling Arizona and see if a Nova & Granderson package could start talks for Justin Upton. I wouldn't worry about finding a back end rotation guy for the Yankees if they unload Nova...they still have Phelps or could go after guys like Haren, Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, or Anibal Sanchez.

old professor said...

I would not package Nova and Granderson for Upton. If (and that would be a big if) Nova can get his head straight he could be a very effective pitcher. In addition the Yankees already have Kuroda and Pettitte hitting the free agent market giving up Nova leaves you with CC and Hughes how would you fill in the gaps.

Ichiro will be back and will be extremely serviceable. Yankees need to look at filling the gap due to Swisher leaving (this will be addition by subtraction). I would seriously question the move of bringing Hunter in other than he will be cheaper than Bourne.

Granderson is replaceable. I don't by the arguement that giving up all those homeruns will hurt the offense. How many runs did he leave out there by striking out as much as he did?

Crash said...

The Pettitte and Kuroda will be back, with Hughes and Phelps, and/or 1 FA signing from the list above that's a real solid rotation.

Nova is serviceable and that's it. He gets wins because in NY but his ERA, K rate, and WHIP are average at best. Upton is young, still 2-3 years away from his prime, and under control through 2015 at a comparable rate to Granderson.

I would also float that same deal to Miami for Stanton, and throw in Joba and a prospect.

old professor said...

I am really glad you are not making the decisions for the team because you would trade multiple individuals for one.

Crash said...

I would trade multiple useless individuals, with some value, for 1 decent individual...speaking of which it is official...the D'backs have begun active discussions about Justin Upton with multiple teams. Given the history and friendship between Towers and Cashman I would think the Yankees may be one of those teams. Towers would also know the Yankee system since he was a "special assistant" to the Cashman prior to the D'Backs.

old professor said...

The Yankees have come out and said: they will not pursue Hamilton, they will not pursue Grienke, they will not pursue Hunter (apparently 2 years at $20 million is too expensive). They will concentrate on Mo, Pettitte, and Kuroda (provided Kuroda accepts the qualifying offer). The word is they are not interested in EITHER Upton - one will be too expense the other they are not willing to meet the asking price in players.

old professor said...

Cashman has stated he is not interested in any way in pursuing a trade with Arizona for Justin Upton. He will wait until 5pm today when the qualifying offers will be either accepted or rejected. It is clear that Swisher is gone, and probably Soriano. Allegedly the Yankees have been talking to Kuroda's agent regarding a multi-year deal, but there has not been any public pronouncement. They appear to be concerned about multi-year and age - SAY WHAT - Pettitte is two years older and Mo is five years older, but Kuroda who really was the ace of the staff can't qualify for a multi-year deal? Makes no sense.

They have also made it clear they are not interested in a multi-year deal with Tori Hunter. Somehow I am having flashbacks to the mid to late sixties when the Yankees lost a world series with an aging core for a team (Mantle, Howard, and Ford were all in their mid to late thirties - and before you get on your horse about age, in the fifties and sixties, a ballplayer was considered old and past his prime by 32). Because the team had not prepared for replacing wornout parts and because CBS worried more about the bottom line than winning, the team went on a horendous losing streak for several years and did not recover until George Steinbrenner bought the team.

With his sons talking about limiting payroll, George has to be rolling over in his grave.

Crash said...

Slade Heathcott having a great AZ Fall so far. Apparently injuries are behind him. He'll start the season at Trenton but could rise quickly.

Anonymous said...

The Diamondback's GM has indicated he is not interested in trading Upton for prospects he wants proven major leaguers and specifically a number one starter who is an innings eater - noone will met that demand.

Regarding Heathcott, I think they were hoping he would develop quicker. The one to watch is the number one pick from last year. He is said to be very smooth and is raising comparisions to hitting techniques similar to Mattingly.

Crash said...

Please...everyone says they want a #1 innings eater. Believe this, Upton gets dealt and it will not be for a #1 type starter.

This just in...The Giants suck. Just when you expect them to snap out of it, they continue their now traditional mid-season swoon. They will end up 9-7 or 10-6 and make the playoffs, it's just frustrating. The secondary has to be the worst in the league.

Crash said...

Pineda is making progress. He was checked out by a Dr today and continuing his throwing program.

Anonymous said...

Pineda making progress wow so what else is new? He will not be ready until June at the earliest.

Giants suck - yes and it is not necessarily the secondary. How many interceptions did Eli throw putting the defense in a bad situation - answer 4. In addition, he has not thrown for a touchdown in three games. It would appear he is not on the same page as his receivers or he is not focused with what is going on - yes he had significiant damage to his house during Sandy, but he has to put that aside.

The running game is also non-esistent.
the only reason they will make the playoffs is because the Cowboys and Eagles suck worse.

Crash said...

Not sure what game you were watching, but it wasn't Eli that blew the coverage twice on the first 2 drives in the 1st quarter that put the Giants in the hole early.

Torii Hunter wants to sign early. Looks to be between Tigers and Yankees. I say let him go to Detroit.

Mason Williams has been listed as the organizations top prospect by Baseball America. Romine is having decent AFL after his back injury sidelined him for most of the 2012 season. He'll need at least another full season in AAA before splitting duties at the MLB level. Think that is why the Yankees will offer Martin a 2 or 3 year deal.

Cano indicating 8-10 years @ $20MM per. That should test the Yankees desire to get under the $189 mark pretty quickly. With CC ($23mm), A-Rod($26mm), Teixeira($23mm), Jeter($11mm), then add Cano at that rate and you're already well over $100mm. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees let him walk at that price and try to get a big name young hitter via trade who's under control for several years (like a Stanton, Upton, McCutchen, etc.)

old professor said...

Actually, the Yankees have a 25 year old prospect that is lighting up the Arizona Fall League and is a highly thought of prospect - Adams.

Adams has played second third and while he was trying to get back to 100% from a broken ankle, he DHd.

So maybe they let Cano walk.

They also have a pitcher that is doing extremely well and is beginning to open eyes for the pen. He is averaging double digit strikeouts per nine innings.

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