Sunday, December 02, 2007

Deal or No Deal . .

The Santana news cycle has me bored to death. Either do a deal or don't already. The Twins were made a very reasonable offer from the Yanks (Hughes, Melkey, and a prospect) - and frankly, it is better than they've gotten from the other franchises that happen to be in the fold on this. So, either do it or move on.

As Crash pointed out earlier in the week, the Orioles are shopping Eric Bedard. He is the best unknown pitcher in the league. I would be more than surprised if the O's did ship him out as it would be a signal to its fans to get ready for another rebuild year. - This guy is good, and could probably be acquired for a much more reasonable price - I'd take him and be satisfied with what we got heading into camp and leave well enough alone.

I read an article on ESPN.com on the history of big time, long-term contracts for pitchers. It makes a good point citing: Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito, less we forget Carl Pavano. So who knows, maybe it will be OK to let JS go somewhere else.

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46 comments:

The Scooter said...

It will NOT be ok to let JS go somewhere else if that somewhere else is Boston. If Santana is traded to the Red Sox, they may challenge the all time win record and they will waltz to another title.

and the Orioles would NEVER trade Bedard to another team in the AL East

Middle Relief said...

Scoots - would you agree though that our deal is better than the Sox's?

I mean Crisp is no where near Melkey.

The Scooter said...

I don't know much about the prospects the Sox are offering, but Crisp is just bad, so I would assume the Yankee offer is superior....But hey, the Twins are pitting one team against the other...good for them...it's their right to do so.

Ultimately Cashman or Hank will have to decide whether to overpay or risk that he winds up in Boston. I say if we have to overpay, so be it...I only draw the line on having to include BOTH Hughes and Kennedy in the deal.

Crash said...

The Yankees have made trades before. So I don't think it's out of the question. If iwas the Orioles, the only way I trade Bedard to NY is if they agree to take Tejeda too. Not sure if the Yanks would do that, there is litterally no place to play him. But if it means getting Bedard do you do it?

The Scooter said...

Absolutely Crash....put Tejada at first base...still, It'll never happen...Do you know how much Peter Angelos hates the Steinbrenners?

Crash said...

There is a report that has the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Angels, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers all contacting Baltimore regarding the availability of Bedard.

This should be an interesting Winter Meetings week.

Is it me, or does nobody really care about who plays who in the BCS? For me as soon as Southern Florida made it up to 2nd, the season was going to be a mess and nobody would care. Every single game is a joke this year.

The Scooter said...

ESPN reporting that Andy Pettitte WILL BE RETURNING to the New York Yankees.

I think it's safe to say the we all consider that great news.

Mid said...

Wow - Sox including Lester and Elsbury now for Santana - they'd have to take that -

And yes - it is great news if AP comes back.

Crash said...

I hope that report is accurate. Pettitte may not be the 19 game winner from the dynasty years but as we all saw in the playoffs and the second half of last year he can still get the job done.

Funny how last week Posada says Pettitte will take his time and decide by mid-January, but is leaning toward retirement, 3 days later his agent is telling the Yankees he wants to come back.

So as of now you have Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy, and Igawa (with the last 3 battling for #5). That's not bad...but imagine if Santana was at the front of that list...it goes from not bad to impressive. I think it also offers a little more flexibility. If Kennedy pitches anywhere near what he did last year, that would be a fantastic #5 and that would allow you to put Chamberlain back in the bullpen and make that very strong.

I think a lot of things play out this week.

Mid said...

If I'm the Twins, I'd take Lester and Elsbury over Melkey and Hughes - Any thoughts on that?

I was thinking about Igawa. His best performance was that long relief job vs. the Sox - maybe he's not a starter and is our Middle Relief for '08??

Mid said...

One final note - the BCS is bull sh!t.

LSU got beat twice by teams not even in the top 10!!!

Oklahoma for the 2nd straight season gets screwed, and also for a 2nd straight season an undefeated CONFERENCE champion does not get a chance to play for the title.

D1 football sucks!

The Scooter said...

Mid, where is the report that the Sox upped their offer?

If it is in fact true that they will include Lester AND Elsbury, then I agree that is the Twins best offer.

old professor said...

why is it when Mid reads an article about long-term deals that mention people like Brown, Pavano, Hampton, etc.. he considers it electric news, however about two weeks ago, I made the same comment about long-term pitching deals and it was as if I didn't know what I was talking about - God the older he gets the more he reminds me of his mother.

If the Sox offer Lester and Ellsbury then the Twins should take the deal. Don't be surprised to see the Yankees change direction and go after the pitcher from Oakland. By the way does anyone remember that Bedard had to be shut down the last month of the season because of either elbow or shoulder issues??

If Pettitte does come back the Yankee rotation with Chamberlain, Pettitte, Wang, Hughes and Kennedy will be strong though I believe Mussina will be the number four starter. Igwa will spend a good portion of the upcoming season at Triple A.

Mid said...

Scooter - the report one what the Sox were offering was on MLB.com

The Scooter said...

Mid,

Am I missing something? Do you just read the headlines? Do you ever actually click on the link and read the entire article.

The article on MLB,com states that Yes, the Sox have added Elsbury to the package, but ONLY if Lester is NOT involved in the deal....and we all already knew this.

If there is some hidden link on MLB.com that only Blog Moderators can read let me know...otherwise this is poor poor blog management on your part.

Any was we can get Old Prof to take over this Blog?

Mid said...

Yes there is a secret link. . . no old prof can't take over.

The Scooter said...

Ok then...maybe you should consider letting 57 be a "guest moderator" until you work out your problems with posting fiction.

Crash said...

Scooter you are right on a couple different fronts. The Sox would add Ellsbury if and only if Lester was removed (and I assume Coco Crisp as well). So the Red Sox possible deals would be either Lester, Crisp, and Jed Lowrie or Ellsbury and Lowrie.

A lot of people seem to think the Yankees still have the best offer out there. It's now up to the Twins to decide if they take the offer or keep Santana. Keeping Santana would be a very real possibility. The only reason the Twins want to trade him is because the owner doesn't want to pay him on the extension. The guy is only worth a couple billion so no reason why they couldn't afford to re-sign Santana (other than his own greed). And if Liriano comes back at full strength that is an awesome 1-2 punch. If the Twins are out of it by the All-Star break then they can try to trade him again.

And until Mid can learn to report accurately I agree there should be a new mod. We can't let it be 57, he would be focusing on all the deals Minaya let slip away...but hey he really came through strong on that Milledge deal.

The Scooter said...

Crash, I'm still on the fence about the Milledge deal. If Omar got a couple fungos and a bag of batting practice balls then I consider it a wash.

Santana came out and said today that if he is not traded by opening day, he will NOT accept a trade during the season....so that puts a great deal of pressure on the Twins to act now. Either way we should know within the next couple of days.

Mid Cashman said...

The lovefest between you two needs to stop. . .

Crash said...

I love how everyone in this is making demands. Santana wants to be traded, but not during the season. The Yankees want a deal but it has to be done today. The Twins want prospects, a lot of them, and all of them better be at the top of the food chain.

With a bunch of stubborn egomaniacs, I have a feeling this deal isn't going to happen.

The Scooter said...

Mid, Don't hate the Playa......Hate the Game.

Just because Crash and I post accuracies.

Millions and millions of internet users rely on this blog for accurate information.....I only speak for the masses.

57 said...

True.. I have been absent... I am trying to sift through the embarrassment knows as the Mets off-season. The Mets have the cake and the players to sign/trade to help make them a contender this year? Who sold Minaya on the fact that we 'should' have won the NL East and the implosion will never happen again so no need to move people?

GO YANKEES!! that is almost where I am at...

***

The BCS is an aboslute train wreck. Division 1 football is a farce and I WILL NOT watch the BCS title game... Mizzou, Oklahoma, Hawaii and Georgia all got shafted. Bend over guys, here comes the BCS.

***

The Buffalo Sabres have won 6 of 7 and are "threatening to climb out of the cellar"

Go Blue!

***

I don't see the Sox giving up Elsbury. Why would they want to do that? You don't need to build a team to beat the Yankees for once.. you already did that. EVERYONE is back.. what are they worried about? The Yankees must build a team to beat the Red Sox (and Mets.. there is still hope)

***

I can't stomach watching the Giants anymore. This has to be the worst winning team in history.

***

Petitte is back.. what does THAT tell you? No Santana...

Crash said...

Reports from the Winter Meetings indicate that Bedard will be traded to someone soon. Not sure what the O's are looking for but I would assume Hughes or Kennedy would be requested and only the start of the negotiation process. I think the O's need a 1B and an OF. Not sure if a Kennedy & S. Duncan combination would be sufficient...they need bullpen help too, maybe we can throw in Farnsworth (pretty please).

The Scooter said...

Can we stop this Bedard talk for God Sake.....He is NOT being traded to the Yankees.

and to even suggest that a package of Kennedy and Duncan would be sufficient is silly.

57 should pipe in because if they do decide to move Bedard, I can see him going to Queens.

The Scooter said...

It just looks like bad news all around today:

The Boston Globe is reporting that the Red Sox and Twins traded medical documents on Santana and Lester last night and it appears as if the Sox are closing in on acquiring him.

And the Daily News is reporting that the Yankees have turned their focus to Dan Haren.....Hughes and Melky are supposedly the centerpieces of any deal between the Yanks and the A's.


I hate this on all levels. While it appears as if the Twins are demanding Kennedy or Horne AND Jackson be included in a deal for Santana, they seem to be willing to take much less from the Red Sox. That just sucks. Also, while I am willing to part with Hughes in a Santana deal, there is NO WAY I want to trade him for Dan Haren. I would rather keep him and go to war with the kids in the rotation next year. I hope Cashman and Hank don't make a knee-jerk trade if they lose out on Santana.

Thoughts???

old professor said...

I am ready to celebrate if the Yankees don't trade the farm for Santana and that the Yankees are finally finished trying to play the Twins game. However, the Harin thing with the A's is a smoke screen. Allegedly teams that have asked Oakland about Haren are asked to put very steep packages together that elicit the usual response - YOU ARE ASKING TOO MUCH. At which point, the A's offer Blanton at a discount. ESPN Analysis during their special on the baseball meetings have made it clear that Oakland would prefer to trade Blanton not Haren.

It seems funny but the same analyist (I beleive it was Buster Olney) indicated he saw Hughes at best being a number 2 starter not the number 1 most people tout him to be (yes that is only one person's opinion - Peter Gammons agreed with his assessment).

The Scooter said...

Yankees swapped young righthanders, trading Tyler Clippard to the Nationals for Jonathan Albaledejo.

Albaledejo, who appeared in 14 games last year, going 1-1 with a 1.88 ERA. In 14 1/3 innings, he fanned 12 and walked two.

Mid said...

On paper - I like the trade we did with the Nats. Firms up the bullpen a bit. Maybe that gives us lattitude in terms of not over paying for Vizcaino.

I'm not big for Haren - At the end of the day, when you look at the Yanks record from the week before the All-Star break until the end of the season, maybe they don't need to do major adjustments. Maybe wishful thinking on my end, but if we don't have buggate, I think we win the series with the Tribe.

Mgmt has said all along that these kids were untouchable. We invested the time, maybe we let these guys out of the barn and see what they can do.

--- unrelated note - I have opened the blog up to guest moderators.

Crash said...

Gammons and Olney are not scouts, they are reporters, so I'm not putting a lot of stock in where they forecast a player to be. And Gammons is always bias because he's a Red Sox fan (he grew up in MA and has season tickets to the Sox). If you want a reputable account of how prospects rate and what they will be listen to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus people and listen to what Keith Law has to say.

Hughes was the #1 pitching prospect in baseball last year...not just in the Yankees organization but in all of baseball. That's why every team wants him. He's going to be better than Lester and better than Bucholz. He may not be a an ace like Santana, those guys are once in a lifetime, but if he can consistently put up 15-20 wins and pitch a couple of huge games in October (a la Andy Pettitte) I don't think anyone will be disappointed if he did that out of the #2 spot in the rotation.

Haren is a mid-rotation guy, a #2 or 3, and he would be excellent in that roll. The problem is the Yankees already have 7 other guys that do that. They need the ace. Giving up Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Tabata, Jackson, or Horne for anything less than a true lights out ace isn't worth it. There is some upside on Haren. He is cheap. His next 3 years will be less than the first year of Johan's new deal. He's only 27. The last 3 years the guy has been an inning eater. Since going to Oakland he's always mad 34 starts and averaged 221 innings. Scouts got worried because his location was off the second half (over use, injury?). Blanton is even younger and only has 2 years in the bigs so he is very affordable and a couple years away from arbitration eligibility and free agency. But again he's not the ace, but rather a #3 or 4 guy.

Since Scooter doesn't want me mentioning other pitchers from the AL East, let me throw out a couple of other possibilities. If the Yankees are talking to Oakland why not ask for Rich Harden. He's a high risk/high reward guy. The kid has had injury problems, but when he's on he's a true ace.

Same goes for Mark Prior. Injury prone but when healthy he's that lights out ace. Both of these guys may be available at a much cheaper price because of their injury history. Is it worth the risk? I don't think either of those guys would be worth Hughes...but maybe Kennedy and 1 or 2 B level guys?

The Scooter said...

I'd take a flier on Mark Prior if he didn't cost us Hughes OR Kennedy.

I agree that Buster Olney doesn't know what he is talking about and Gammons should not be allowed to comment on anyone that is not a Red Sock.

Conflicting reports out of Nashville now that the Yankees might still be in the Santana hunt. I have come to the conclusion that we are not going to know anything until a deal is struck, either way.

A couple of observations:

Is there a bigger friggin tool than Steve Phillips...he just grates on my nerves.

Is there anything funnier than Steve Finley hanging out in Opreyland trying to get himself a job?

If the Yankees trade Melky, does Bernie get invited to Spring Training?

Separated at Birth.......Kirk Herbstreit and Middle Relief

Herbie reported (inaccurately) that Les Miles had a deal in place with Michigan, only to be verbally bitchslaped by Miles the next day. Looks like he gets his sports info the same place Mid gets his.

Crash said...

Yankees Make a Huge Blockbuster Deal

The Yankees acquired Jonathan Albaladejo, a right-handed reliever, from the Nationals late Monday night for Tyler Clippard. Albaladejo, 25, worked in 14 games last September with a 1.88 earned run average. Clippard was 3-1 with a 6.33 E.R.A.

old professor said...

I am not sure why the Yankees traded with the Nats. The relief pitcher they got is an untried commodity.

It now appears the Yankees will go in a different direction away from Santana - the Twins apparently asked for Hughes, Cabrera and Kennedy. Let the Red Sox have him.

The Yankees also finalized the deal with Jose Molina. He is now under contract for the next two years. One less hole to fill.

A Yankee rotation of Pettitte, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Mussina is not bad. Only problem there is it leaves Kennedy out of the pitcher. However, next year will probably be Pettitte's last and Mussina's contract finally comes to an end, the Yankees will need some of the young arms to compete. (Who knows, Santana may wait to become a free agent and sign with the highest bidder.)

The Scooter said...

Come on Crash....scroll up. I posted that trade hours ago.

You just blew your opportunity to be guest moderator.

Mid said...

Albaladejo more or less tested than Clippard???

I think we tell the Twins to go screw, and we'll remember this when we beat your brains in come regular season.

Crash said...

Wow my bad Scooter. Totally went by that post about Clippard.

Let me a throw a scenario out there for people to think about. All the talk with Santana is Yankees and Red Sox. The Angels were interested early but focused on Miggy Cabrera. They didn't have enough prospects to work trades for both Santana and Cabrera. Looks like the Tigers may be working a huge deal to the Marlins for Cabrera and Willis. If Cabrera goes elsewhere, look for the Angels to make a late re-entry into the Santana talks, a combination of Jered Weaver, Howie Kendrick, and/or Brandon Woods would be asked for by Minnesota. Don't know who the Angels would be willing to give up, but it is a real possibility.

old professor said...

One other announcement that seems to have gotten by people. The log jam at first base for the Yankees just got smaller. Andy Phillips has been designated for assignment in order to make room on the forty man roster for Posada (apparently when someone declares for free agency, their spot on the 40 man is opened). Once Mo is officially signed and A-Rod is made official, there will be two more people who will have to be removed from the roster.

Look for people such as TJ Beam, Carl Pavano, and Matt DeSalvo to be released unless the Yankees make a trade where they send two or three players for one.

Cashman also commented that Juan Miranda had a solid Arizona Fall League performance and can be counted on as a possible first baseman. (Shelly Duncan may want to keep a travel bag packed).

Crash said...

The Yankees can't release Pavano he has another year left and is owed $11M. His club option is for the 2009 season, so he's released after next season. Plus the guy had surgery in June (I think). If he rehabs well he may be able pitch after the all-star break, or maybe in September. The Yanks may as well try to get some usage out of that $11M, right?

DeSalvo is probably gone. But I'm not sure about Beam. He's a big guy with a power fastball, good K ratio, doesn't walk too many, but gives up the long ball. He was decent at AAA last year, don't think he got a call up. But he provides another option for the bullpen.

Crash said...

Well it looks like my scenario is playing out...the Tigers have acquired Miggy Cabrera and Dontrell Willis for 6 players. The key players the Tigers give up are Cameron Maybin (a great CF prospect) and Andrew Miller (a stud pitching prospect).

Look for the Angels to make a big late push for Santana (please anywhere but Boston).

Crash said...

57 it looks Omar has made a fairly decent offer for Bedard. Don't know if it will be enough, good luck.

57 said...

I'll take Bedard. Gomez, Heilman and a pitching prospect were rejected from my understanding. Maybe throw in Church? I'd also throw in Hernandez as a utlity infielder with the deal. 221 strikeouts and a 13-5 record in the dominant AL would be welcome in Queens. But we cannot stop there... We need one more pitcher.

As Scooter and I will embark on Queens next summer... i am looking forward to Bedard striking out A-Rod 3 times in that game.

The electoral college is like the BCS and should be blown up. Give the Presidency to the popular vote... Romney and Hawaii!! I am just interested in Clinton getting in the office to see how much ass bubba will get when lady Clinton is on a 14 day trip to China. The White House will look like a revolving door at Macy's.

I lost respect in the NFL last night. Did a memo go out to the refs saying that if the game is close, give the Pats the calls?

old professor said...

Crash, Pavano being under contract does not preclude the Yankees from releasing him - they would have to pay his salary. Pavano is rehabbing from Tommy John Surgery - I seriously doubt with his looking to go to the DL with hangnails, he will pitch again for the Yankees. They maight as well decide he is a lost cause. Actually, the question that I have is that by being on the sixty day DL, does he may actually count on the 40 man?

It now appears the Twins are backing off the trade with the Red Sox. The Yankees and Sox both were smart by not giving in to the Twins demands.

Pettitte has indicated he would like to pitch in the new Yankee Stadium in 2009. That would mean a minimum of a two year contract. Could give the Yankees the ace they need to stabilize the rotation and give the kids time to mature and learn to pitch CONSISTENTLY in the majors.

A quick aside to Scooter about the rating by baseball for Hughes being the top prospect in baseball. If memory serves me correctly, Eric Milton and Brian Taylor were both listed as top prospects and number ones in baseball. Taylor never made it to Triple A and Milton was a bust with the Cinncinati Reds (though he did get a big free agent contract). Going back even further, Ron Blomberg was tagged as a can't miss prospect (first dh to get a hit) and Bobby Mercer while having a very good major league career and being a class act, never lived up to the billing of being the next Mickey Mantle.

I also find it somewhat peculiar that the Yankees were willing to part with Hughes, but not Kennedy. (Even though it now seems Kennedy is destined to start the year in Scranton).

How about those Tigers getting both Cabrera and Willis from the Marlins. Makes the Tigers one very strong team (infortunately that puts Brandon Inge on the outside looking in). The Marlins on the other hand continue to be the joke of the majors. Maybe it is time Major League Baseball determine baseball in Miami is a lost cause and let the team relocate or fold the team and disperse the players.

Mid said...

anybody can hand pick a few prospects that blew up.

Jeter and A-Rod were also top rated prospects - that doesn't prove one way or the other it is a flawless system. Some work out, some don't.

tigers are now the odds on favorite to win the WS.

Crash said...

So it may be Red Sox or nobody. And given the moves the Tigers just made I would say the Twins will hold onto Santana in order to compete for the Central/Wild Card. I think that would be very good for the Yanks. Even though Hank is getting railed in the press for blowing the deal, that could have turned the balance back to the Yanks in the East.

Old Prof. Milton and Taylor may have been #1 in the Yankee system at some point but I do not believe they were #1 in baseball. Also the Baseball America top 10 prospects generally do pan out, I agree with Mid that any one player may or may not make it, but in general the Baseball America people get their prospect ranking correct. Just some quick examples, going back to just 2003 you had the likes of Miggy Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Rich Harden, Prince Fielder, and Fausto Carmona. In 2004 you still have Mauer Fielder, but you also have Upton, Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Alex Rios, and Grady Sizemore. I can keep going but I think you get the point. Yes a top rated player can fail, but the vast majority will be good, maybe not superstar, but good, and Hughes was at the front of that list last year. He may still be there this year. It will be interesting to see when they release the 2008 prospect list in February.

Crash said...

Wow Newsday is saying the Yanks left a deal on the table that met both teams terms...the deciding factor was Santana's salary??? It would have been Santana for Hughes, Melky, Jeff Marquez(AA pitcher), and Mitch Hilligoss (A 3B). I'm shocked they would walk away from that. The Twins met there demands and they still walked away...

What's even more surprising is that the DailyNews has a poll asking the question: Do you agree with the Yankees to stop pursuing Johan? 70% agreed they should stop pursuing. A similar poll/question was put on Newsday and again 70% of people felt that keeping Hughes and the "young guns" was better than getting Santana. Additionally the Yankees are not pursuing any starting pitching.

They are apparently turning their focus on the bullpen. It looks like Vizcaino may be asking for too much $, he is eying 4 years/$19M similar to what Linebrink signed for. Yanks aren't interested at that price.

It certainly was interesting this week at the Winter Meetings. We'll have to wait and see what pieces to the puzzle they will add between now and opening of spring training.

old professor said...

Glad the Yankees backed out of the trade. While the Single A third baseman may turn out to be something (and then again maybe not), they won't need a third baseman for the next ten years. Jeff Marquez is another of the young guns the Yankees are very high on and will within the next two years be in the majors. Four players for Santana regardless of who they are is to high a price.

The Twins need to keep Santana because of the new stadium deal. I seriously doubt they want to be considered in the same manner as the Marlins.

Vizciano is not worth the kind of money paid to Linebrink. He may be used up. The righthanded pitcher Jose Veras may be more servieable at this point.

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